https://fengur.cn/tags/%E8%AE%A4%E7%9F%A5%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE/Recent content in 认知偏差 on 风塘 WindHavenHugozh-cnTue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://fengur.cn/posts/modelcreate/%E6%80%9D%E8%BE%A8%E7%A7%91%E6%99%AE%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88/16-%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E7%9B%B4%E8%A7%89%E7%9A%84%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1/Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://fengur.cn/posts/modelcreate/%E6%80%9D%E8%BE%A8%E7%A7%91%E6%99%AE%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88/16-%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E7%9B%B4%E8%A7%89%E7%9A%84%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1/抛硬币连出五次正面，下一把依然是五五开；二十三个人同屋，生日撞车的概率已超一半；换一扇门，中奖率反而翻倍。人类大脑在进化中没有学会独立事件与条件概率，本文用赌徒谬误、生日悖论、三门问题、基础概率忽视与回归均值，拆解概率直觉为何系统性地犯错。https://fengur.cn/posts/modelcreate/%E6%80%9D%E8%BE%A8%E7%A7%91%E6%99%AE%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88/17-%E5%B9%B8%E5%AD%98%E8%80%85%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE%E4%B8%93%E9%A2%98/Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://fengur.cn/posts/modelcreate/%E6%80%9D%E8%BE%A8%E7%A7%91%E6%99%AE%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88/17-%E5%B9%B8%E5%AD%98%E8%80%85%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE%E4%B8%93%E9%A2%98/二战中，军方想按返航轰炸机的弹孔分布加装装甲，统计学家沃德却说：装甲该加在没有弹孔的地方——因为那些位置中弹的飞机根本没飞回来。幸存者偏差是最隐蔽的思维陷阱：我们只看见回来的飞机、成功的创业者、活着的猫，却用这些沉默的数据反推世界的规律。