https://fengur.cn/tags/%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E7%9B%B4%E8%A7%89/Recent content in 概率直觉 on 风塘 WindHavenHugozh-cnTue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://fengur.cn/posts/modelcreate/%E6%80%9D%E8%BE%A8%E7%A7%91%E6%99%AE%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88/16-%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E7%9B%B4%E8%A7%89%E7%9A%84%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1/Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://fengur.cn/posts/modelcreate/%E6%80%9D%E8%BE%A8%E7%A7%91%E6%99%AE%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88/16-%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E7%9B%B4%E8%A7%89%E7%9A%84%E9%99%B7%E9%98%B1/抛硬币连出五次正面，下一把依然是五五开；二十三个人同屋，生日撞车的概率已超一半；换一扇门，中奖率反而翻倍。人类大脑在进化中没有学会独立事件与条件概率，本文用赌徒谬误、生日悖论、三门问题、基础概率忽视与回归均值，拆解概率直觉为何系统性地犯错。