https://fengur.cn/tags/%E5%9B%A0%E6%9E%9C%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB/Recent content in 因果关系 on 风塘 WindHavenHugozh-cnTue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://fengur.cn/posts/modelcreate/%E6%80%9D%E8%BE%A8%E7%A7%91%E6%99%AE%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88/18-%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E4%B8%8E%E5%9B%A0%E6%9E%9C/Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://fengur.cn/posts/modelcreate/%E6%80%9D%E8%BE%A8%E7%A7%91%E6%99%AE%E7%BB%BC%E5%90%88/18-%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E4%B8%8E%E5%9B%A0%E6%9E%9C/冰淇淋销量和溺水人数同步上涨，但禁止冰淇淋救不了人；总体数据显示男性录取率更高，分院系看却几乎处处对女性有利——相关不等于因果。从辛普森悖论到随机对照试验，从工具变量到希尔准则，本文拆解人类如何从相关的迷雾中打捞出因果。